“Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”
– W. Edwards Deming
In the fast-paced world of product development, everyone, from engineers to executives, has an opinion. But as any experienced product manager (PM) knows, opinions can be loud, persuasive, and dangerously wrong. That’s why great PMs embrace one fundamental truth: data beats opinions.
The Battle Between Gut and Evidence
Product management is a role full of ambiguity. You’re constantly making decisions under uncertainty: Which features to prioritize? Which market to target? What design will convert better?
It’s tempting to rely on instincts, stakeholder preferences, or the HiPPO (Highest Paid Person’s Opinion). But that’s a risky path. Opinions are often shaped by biases, incomplete context, or outdated information.
For example, a CEO may insist that adding a chatbot will increase user engagement because a competitor has one. But unless data supports that belief, like a clear user need, conversion metrics, or usability feedback, it’s just an opinion.
In contrast, data brings objectivity. It provides a shared truth that teams can rally around. It doesn’t mean feelings and vision are irrelevant, they’re essential, but they should be validated through evidence.
Real-World Example: Airbnb
Consider Airbnb in its early days. Founders Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia believed professional photography of listings would boost bookings. Investors were skeptical, it seemed expensive and hard to scale. But instead of arguing, they ran an experiment: they hired a few photographers in New York to take professional photos of homes. The result? Listings with high-quality photos saw 2x–3x more bookings.
Armed with data, Airbnb rolled out the program. What started as a hunch became one of their most successful early growth strategies, because it was tested, measured, and backed by real user behavior.
Types of Data That Drive Decisions
Effective product decisions are powered by both quantitative and qualitative data. Here’s how they play distinct but complementary roles:
1. Quantitative Data
Numbers that scale, used to validate patterns.
- Analytics: Google Analytics, Mixpanel, Amplitude
- A/B Testing: Comparing feature variants (e.g., new button design vs. old)
- User metrics: Retention, churn, NPS, conversion rate
Example: Dropbox used A/B testing extensively to optimize its onboarding. By tweaking messaging and signup flows based on user drop-off data, it significantly increased activation rates (Source).
2. Qualitative Data
User stories, motivations, and pain points. Often explains the “why” behind the numbers.
- User interviews
- Support tickets
- Usability tests
- Surveys
Example: Intercom used qualitative feedback to uncover that users weren’t confused by the interface itself but by unclear onboarding expectations. This insight wouldn’t come from metrics alone.
The Dangers of Being Opinion-Driven
- Feature Bloat Without data validation, teams build features based on assumptions. This leads to complex products that don’t solve real problems.
- Wasted Resources If you spend months building something nobody uses, that’s not just lost time, it’s opportunity cost. You could’ve been solving something your users actually needed.
- Team Misalignment Opinions create silos. Data creates alignment. When teams debate based on data, the conversation becomes collaborative instead of confrontational.
Building a Data-Driven Culture
Being data-driven is a mindset, not just a toolset. Here’s how product managers can cultivate it:
Ask Questions First
Instead of jumping to solutions, PMs should ask:
- What problem are we solving?
- How do we know it’s a problem?
- What does success look like?
Set Measurable Goals
Use OKRs (Objectives and Key Results) or KPIs. A feature without a success metric is a red flag.
Validate Early and Often
Use MVPs, prototypes, fake door tests, and user interviews. Dropbox famously launched with a demo video instead of a full product, to validate demand (Source).
Democratize Data Access
Empower teams with dashboards and self-serve tools. Don’t let data become the domain of analysts only.
Balance Data with Judgment
Data isn’t perfect. It can be incomplete, misinterpreted, or biased. Great PMs combine data with intuition, then validate again. As Jeff Bezos puts it: “We are stubborn on vision. We are flexible on details.”
What If Data Conflicts With Opinion?
This happens often. A powerful stakeholder may push a feature that data doesn’t support. Here’s how to handle it:
- Acknowledge their perspective.
- Show the data objectively, use visuals.
- Suggest a test or experiment to evaluate the idea.
- Frame the risk: “If we spend 3 weeks here, we’re not working on X.”
When conversations are rooted in data, they become less personal and more productive.
In Summary
Data beats opinions, not because opinions are worthless, but because decisions built on evidence drive better outcomes. In product management, this means prioritizing features users need, building experiences they love, and creating a shared language for teams to move forward.
It’s not about removing all intuition; it’s about validating hunches through experimentation. That’s how you build better products, faster, and with far less friction.
As Peter Drucker said, “What gets measured, gets managed.” And in product management, what gets measured gets built right.